GOP likely to keep control of Legislature, but Dems could flip seats
- Author: Zachary Reyes Nov 06, 2018,
Nov 06, 2018, 0:53
He says, "We should vote people in and out, not shout them in and out".
What's likely to happen?That's unlikely, by all accounts, because the map is so friendly for the GOP.
Many pundits see more than President Trump on the ballot; numerous opeds have said the idea of America itself is at stake. Democrats are expected to fall short of the two seats they need to reach the majority in the Senate.
"House forecast: Democrats will win 226 seats (and the House majority) while Republicans will win just 209 seats".
So Democrats could win as few as 203 and as many as 262?
But in the first midterm under Trump - an utterly unconventional president - there are many unknowns, above all the bottom-line impact of a president who has driven both supporters and foes to a rare fever pitch of emotion.
That has left many Democrats, particularly those from the party's liberal progressive wing, frustrated. Sinema was up by two points in early October and by three in September.
Indeed, powerful Democratic forces are already pushing for Trump's impeachment, even if Democratic leaders aren't ready to go that far.
It has been a close race since McSally and Sinema each won their respective party's primaries in August.
The president's closing argument to voters was on stark display Sunday as he seeks to motivate complacent Republican voters to the polls by stoking fears about the prospects of Democratic control. Trump warned Americans would "lose all of their money" if the GOP was defeated because the stock market could take a hit.
We're in "blue wave" territory here.
Billionaire former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who personally invested $110 million to help Democrats this year, largely in the House, has seized on voter education levels in picking target races, according to senior aide Howard Wolfson. A scalper wished Sinema luck, leading the delighted candidate to cry: "We've got the scalper vote!"
That environment still might not be good enough to deliver the Senate, though.
Independents and moderates, they say, want candidates who exhibit maturity and stability. Heidi Heitkamp, a Democrat, in North Dakota.
Then, Democrats need 10 more.
Among white college-educated women, Democrats enjoy a 28-point advantage: 61 percent to 33 percent. Bloomberg photo by Aaron P. Bernstein. Bill Nelson, who faces Republican Gov. Rick Scott in a marquee Senate race.
President Donald Trump is blasting central American countries, including Honduras and El Salvador, for failing to stop the caravans of migrants trying to make their way to the U.S. And 35 Senate seats are in play, as are nearly 40 governorships and the balance of power in virtually every state legislature.
Trump praised Kemp at a rally Sunday in Macon as a "strong man" and "strong personality" and says Kemp will be a great governor.
The contentious hearings for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, in which a Senate Democrat hid uncorroborated sexual allegations against him until the 11th hour, were a disaster for Democrats.
Hurl pointed out the divisions that often occur in both parties, which can muddy the significance between a narrow Democratic majority and a narrow Republican majority. Immediately, talk would turn to how the 2016 election was perhaps a fluke and to how Trump's divisiveness had backfired.
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., has outlined a legislative agenda that includes Democratic priorities like lowering prescription drug prices and reforming campaign finance laws. FiveThirtyEight has them at a 1-in-8 shot.
Immigration remains a hot topic that Mr Trump has focused on. They are called midterms because they coincide with the halfway stage of the President's four-year term.
Of the 31 toss-up seats held by Republicans, just nine show the Democratic candidate clearly ahead in the latest polls.
Trump told supporters: "I didn't know Lee Greenwood would be here". It wouldn't necessarily be a resounding affirmation of Trump - these are only red states the GOP would be winning - but it would lead to some real, justified soul-searching. "But now it looks like we're going backwards, and I'm ashamed of where we're at in this country right now".
Of the 35 Senate seats that are facing polls, 26 were held by the Democrats. He recalled that some Republicans claimed that Obamacare would establish death panels "to kill your grandma" in 2010, exaggerated the threat that Ebola faced to the American people in 2014, and blew the Hillary Clinton email controversy out of proportion in 2016.
How the House operates can change dramatically with a shift in party control.
"But you better get out and vote", he said.
What it would mean: The same as above - chaos - except less specifically partisan.
US President Donald Trump arrives for a "Make America Great Again" campaign rally at McKenzie Arena, in Chattanooga, Tennessee on November 4, 2018.