Will Trump's Withdrawal from Iran Deal Make the USA a 'Pariah State'?

Trump announced Tuesday he is quitting the Iran nuclear deal, pitting him against the United States' closest allies and leaving the future of Tehran's nuclear ambitions in question.

The market also contended with concerns about Venezuela's crude production slipping further and with bullish drawdowns in USA crude inventories. The threat of war was receding, and the sanctions that had stifled Iran's economy were soon to be lifted.

Iran had struck the JCPoA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) deal with the United States, the UK, Russia, China, France and Germany after years of negotiations.

The escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, resulting from Israel and the United States upping the ante against Iran, will likely keep oil prices buoyed, even if sanctions are not implemented by other countries. "That is the first stage", a senior State Department official said of plans for talks by Pompeo and his chief Iran negotiator, Brian Hook. Since the JCPOA was implemented, Iran has destroyed the core of a reactor that could have produced weapons-grade plutonium; removed two-thirds of its centrifuges (over 13,000) and placed them under worldwide monitoring; and eliminated 97 percent of its stockpile of enriched uranium-the raw materials necessary for a bomb. We could have at least an agreement among ourselves fairly quickly. Though the president says he wants to negotiate a new deal, the United States has nearly no leverage to pull that off.

"The fact is this was a disgusting, one-sided deal that should have never, ever been made, Trump said on Tuesday". But never had all of Europe stood united against a U.S. Administration and accused it of being an worldwide scofflaw-until Trump.

At least five US citizens are being held in Iran, but experts said there could be more because many families choose not to go public.

While Democrats praised the deal when it was reached in 2015, Republicans derided it calling Iran a sponsor of terrorism. It is therefore not surprising that the regime lobbied hard to salvage the nuclear deal.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, however, is in no hurry to decide whether to pump more oil to make up for an expected drop in exports from Iran, four sources familiar with the issue said, saying any loss in supply would take time.

Indeed, Rouhani's remarks prove that the regime is struggling to provide the Iranian people with their most basic needs.

Moscow and Tehran will continue to cooperate on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran's nuclear program after the USA pulled out of the deal, Russia's foreign ministry said Thursday. They include businessman Morad Tahbaz, gallery owner Karan Vafadari, Baquer and Siamak Namazi, a father and son, and Xiyue Wang, a Princeton PhD candidate. And the whole point of the Iran deal was legacy, it wasn't security.

He asserted that the "decaying, rotten structure of the agreement" is not able to prevent "an Iranian nuclear bomb". In 2017, trade between the European Union and Iran was worth $25bn.

British Prime Minister Theresa May, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron said they noted Trump's decision "with regret and concern" in a joint statement.

"If US sanctions are re-instated the impact is likely to be significantly less this time as the US does not buy Iranian crude, so the sanctions will primarily limit US banks being involved in financing of crude exports", he said.

Other signatories to the Iran deal - including Tehran, China and European powers - have vowed to press ahead with the agreement's implementation.

But the chances for such a follow-on agreement, even absent Trump, are slim.

At a Tuesday meeting between European and Iranian officials in Brussels, Iran said it would stay in the deal if the Europeans could keep their own financial commitments and also make up for the loss Tehran would face as a result of the new U.S. sanctions, according to a European diplomat.

Citi analysts said the latest disruption to oil supplies would probably be the test case for whether Saudi Arabia and the rest of OPEC would keep the already announced production cuts to the end of this year or extend them into 2019, driving oil prices even higher than current levels. So by any measure, the JCPOA has imposed strict limitations on Iran's nuclear program and achieved real results.

  • Leroy Wright