Democrats Release Infrastructure Plan With $80 Billion for Grid Upgrades
- Author: Salvatore Jensen Mar 10, 2018,
Mar 10, 2018, 10:29
Ironically, the Democrats' objective for funding infrastructure fix is the main virtue of their plan.
Just over 1 million Democrats voted in the statewide primaries, to Republicans' 1.5 million votes. Numerous latter are not committed partisans: While they are highly motivated to support populists, many refuse to lend their support to more conventional Democratic candidates.
Democrats will have a tough time winning statewide races in November despite the "Trump effect" because they have fielded little-known candidates against top Republicans, such as Republican Gov. Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick. None of the 25 Republican seats are rated as lean Democrat.
In other words, not only can the blue wave narrative distract us from what is happening on the ground, it can also help drive Republican enthusiasm and undermine Democratic turnout - not quite the double whammy Democratic strategists are looking for.
Although the outcome of any election cycle can be determined by factors not apparent in previous elections - Donald Trump's victory in the 2016 presidential election is a case in point - recent voting behavior can also identify tendencies that tea leaf readers consider predictive.
About failing to win such a high percentage of the vote against overmatched rivals, O'Rourke noted that he has focused on campaigning all over Texas, including strongholds for those who cast ballots in the Republican primary.
Two of those Democratic net gains came in Texas congressional districts.
(2) "Generic Republicans" often poll better than actual Republicans when pitted against a named Democrat (the reverse is also true).
"Voter turnout has been historically lethargic and low and so that has to be a trend that reverses", said UTEP Professor Dr. Charles Boehmer, who believes rural counties will undoubtedly be solidly Republican and vote for Cruz.
Kondik notes that the reason Ryan's district was rated as Likely GOP is not because of unpopularity or a particularly strong opponent, but "to account for the possibility that he may not even be running in the fall", though he has not announced any plan to step down. Republicans, however, still led - casting 1.5 million ballots.
In order for a candidate to directly advance, they must receive more than 50 percent of the votes. As Axios says, "with the election many months away and final Republican opponents not set, these numbers are likely to change as real GOP challengers get involved in the race". And if the Democrats' much-ballyhooed Blue Wave in Texas nets them all of one Congressional seat (Hurd's TX-23, which need not be conceded yet) which was in their hands as late as 2014, well... An incumbent sitting in the mid-40's ain't great, of course, but when voters are faced with a choice between two actual people - and the Democrats attack an actual opposing candidate - the dynamics can shift.
The Republican primary for the 6th Congressional District generated about 45,000 votes, while the Democratic contenders racked up approximately 29,000.
There's an obvious explanation for this; the three key Democrat House races all boasted huge fields of candidates. Specifically, Democratic turnout surged in major metropolitan areas - and the wealthy suburbs, as The Cook Political Report's David Wasserman points out. (The five percent gerrymandered advantage still applies). Which would leave a one-party Republican race in a district Clinton won by nearly 10 percent.
"I think that what they want me to understand is [their] frustration with the president", he said.