Tropical storm warning remains in effect
- Author: Leroy Wright Jun 19, 2017,
Jun 19, 2017, 13:15
The reasoning behind the policy change is to offer more advanced warning for areas potentially seeing tropical storm or hurricane force winds by a system that is within two days of developing into one.
Formation chance of a tropical cyclone through five days is estimated to be medium (50 percent). Once it is in the Gulf, it could become more organized, develop a distinct circulation and become a tropical depression or tropical storm. There is better model agreement that this system will track northwest towards the central Gulf by Tuesday and then perhaps west-northwest towards Louisiana.
The National Hurricane Centre (NHC) in Miami says that conditions appear to be favourable for gradual development of that system while it moves slowly northwestward toward the southern Gulf of Mexico by early next week.
Tropical Storm Arlene developed earlier this year in April, so this next tropical system would be the second one of the season, Hathaway said.
As the system moves from near the Yucatan Peninsula to the Gulf, heavy rain will continue to threaten western Cuba with flooding rain. Increasing cloudiness with isolated pockets of moderate to heavy showers, periods of rain and thunderstorms are expected to spread across Barbados late tomorrow into Tuesday.
The probability remains low that Houston will take a direct hit from a pending tropical system this week. The exact track of this storm is very uncertain, with some models forecasting storm movement over Texas, some over the Florida Panhandle and others in between.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is located in the central Atlantic just over 800 miles east of the Windward Islands.
The next names on the list of tropical storms in the Atlantic basin for 2017 are Bret and Cindy, following Arlene from April.
The system, which was tracked just southwest of Cuba, could potentially affect parts of the USA, but Cangialosi said it's "too soon to say where or exactly what they will be at this time".
The main reason there is so much confusion on where this system may go is due to an approaching front from the north.