Pound under pressure as poll points to hung Parliament risk

The Prime Minister insisted the only poll that matters is the June 8 vote after the seat projection study suggested the United Kingdom faces a hung parliament.

His model, using a technique called multilevel regression and post-stratification, now predicts May's Conservatives failing to secure an overall majority.

That's tighter than other companies are reporting.

A poll conducted by Survation for ITV's Good Morning Britain programme showed May's lead had dropped to 6 percentage points from 9 points a week ago and 18 points two weeks ago.

"But the problem that Labour are facing is that although they have gained some ground in the polls, their voters are softer and less certain than the Conservative voters".

While Heath's Conservatives got more votes than Labour, Labour won more seats - and Heath resigned on March 4, 1974.

JP Morgan strategist, Paul Meggyesi, says there is an 86% certainty there will be a Conservative victory on the 8 of June elections, despite the narrowing down of the Conservative lead.

United Kingdom betting company Betfair said the chances of a Tory majority has gone down, but still put an 83% probability the ruling party will emerge as the victor of the election.

Some pollsters make adjustments to their final poll numbers based on historical tendency to vote, whereas others simply base their headline voting intention on how people rate their own likelihood to vote. Labour is on 39 percent, up three points and its highest level since 2014, before Jeremy Corbyn became party leader. Those pollsters which lean towards taking young people at their word report smaller Tory leads while those that don't report larger Tory leads.

"These are unusual times, so we don't know what will happen, but the Labour 40 per cent share. does include a lot of younger voters who have not voted before, people who don't normally vote", Ipsos MORI chief executive Ben Page said on Friday, after his company put the Conservatives on 45 per cent and Labour on 40 per cent.

During the European Union referendum campaign it consistently showed that more voters favoured Leave than Remain. The Electoral Commission table below shows a breakdown the vote for the main parties in 2015.

Corbyn on Wednesday did not rule out forming a coalition or doing a deal with the Scottish Nationalists and others to get into government in the event of a hung parliament.

JP Morgan undermined Theresa May's message on Tuesday, suggesting that center-left United Kingdom coalition could steer the negotiations away from a hard Brexit. Kathleen Brooks, research director at City Index, says a small Conservative majority is the most likely outcome of the election, and this could send the pound back down to $1.20, a 7% drop from where it now trades.

  • Zachary Reyes