UK stocks post best month of the year as sterling swings
- Author: Leroy Wright Июн 04, 2017,
Июн 04, 2017, 15:08
The projection, which uses data about each constituency to predict how voting intention would translate into seats, suggested that the Conservatives could lose 20 seats while Labour could gain nearly 30.
The cut-and-thrust of campaign politics turned personal while the pound took a hit on Wednesday after an opinion poll suggested a hung Parliament after the June 8 election, which was widely assumed would be easily won by the ruling Conservative Party.
May called the snap election when polls pointed toward a 23-point landslide victory.
The Ashcroft model brings together large-scale surveys and detailed census data to try to understand what is happening in individual constituencies.
An ICM poll for the Guardian on Tuesday showed Labour gaining ground - a trend consistent with other pollsters - but suggested the Tories were still enjoying a healthy advantage.
Opinion polls predicted a hung parliament in 2015, however, Ed Miliband's Labour party suffered a significant loss to David Cameron's Conservative Party.
The YouGov results suggest their team expect a higher turnout among young people, who are more likely to vote Labour, but if their projections are wrong the Conservatives will secure a comfortable win.
The latest YouGov analysis has been released, and it shows that Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party have closed the gap even further on Theresa May's Tories.
Speaking about the poll, Green Party co-leader Jonathan Bartley said: 'If we learned anything from the past two years it is that you can't predict what's going to happen.
According to the PA poll, the result would see only a marginal gain for the Lib Dems with 10 seats while the Scottish National Party would still boast more than 50.
Another interesting debate is how the FTSE 100 trades if we see a Conservative majority, which as I say is still the likely scenario priced by markets.
YouGov acknowledged that its predictions were controversial and allowed for a wide margin of error, adding that the samples in each constituency were small.
What could influence the vote on June 8?
YouGov has built a profile of each constituency, based on voting history in elections and in the European Union referendum as well as the ethnic and educational breakdown of the electorate.