Shock Poll Says Britain Could Be Heading For Hung Parliament

If the poll is accurate and the swing were uniform across the country, the Tories would be 17 seats short of an overall majority.

The Panelbase poll, conducted between May 19-23 showed the Conservatives winning 48 percent of the vote in June 8 elections, with Labour on 33 percent.

YouGov, along with Survation, has consistently shown Labour faring better than in other polls.

"Her support appears to have plunged after the poor reception of the party manifesto, including plans to make more elderly voters pay for home care", the newspaper said.

"It's worth remembering that polling figures have been varying widely in the past few weeks, and also that polls significantly overstated Labour's position heading into the last general election", it said, in a note to investors.

The centrist Liberal Democrats, the environmentally-aware Greens, and the pro-Brexit right-wing UK Independence Party (UKIP) also have small majorities in the UK parliament.

It recovered ground early Wednesday, trading broadly flat at 1.28 against the dollar and up 0.1 percent against the euro at 1.14.

On the YouGov website, Rivers sets out how the new model works by interviews approximately 7,000 panellists about their voting intentions in the election.

In 2015, 6 out of 10 18-24 year olds voted in the General Election.

When gains and losses for other parties are factored in, the modeling suggests the Conservative Party's tally could be 16 seats below the 326 seats required to be able to govern alone, leading to a "hung parliament".

Prime Minister Theresa May has said the "only poll that matters" is the one on June 8 while Labour's Angela Rayner dismissed the research, insisting Labour is "in it to win it".

The projection sent shockwaves through Westminster, and rattled May's Conservative Party.

YouGov's findings were based on examining data rather than a traditional pre-election poll and the results spelled bad news for Theresa May's dream of a "strong and stable" government.

The model is based on 50,000 interviews, which YouGov says allows them to assess the intention of every type of voter, from where they live to how they voted in the European Union referendum, their age and social background, to weight the results.

However, the Tories' apparent failure hasn't come because Labor or Jeremy Corbyn suddenly chose to change their policies or rhetoric, which are already near-Communist, but stem from the fact that the Conservatives have started proposing policies that are deeply unpopular with the British.

  • Zachary Reyes