YouGov Poll: British PM May Could Lose Majority in June 8 Election
- Author: Zachary Reyes Jun 02, 2017,
Jun 02, 2017, 3:30
Its 2015 general election eve poll had Tories and Labour neck and neck on 34% when the Conservatives won with a clear seven-point lead the next day. There was slightly better news for May from a Panelbase poll which put her party 8 points ahead of Labour, but that still meant the Conservatives' advantage had nearly halved in a week.
Yesterday a poll from Kantar showed the Tories' lead over Labour had stretched to 10 points.
The Conservatives have now raised £9.5m during the General Election campaign, compared to £3.4m for Labour.
According to the survey, the current government may find itself 16 seats short of a majority, and 21 short of David Cameron's majority back in 2015.
While May enjoyed a lead of more than 20 percentage points when she announced the snap election, polls published since the resumption of campaigning after the Manchester terror attack last week have shown Conservative leads varying from 4 points up to 14 points.
The Daily Telegraph newspaper's rolling average of the last eight polls now puts the Conservatives on 44 percent, Labour on 36 percent, the centrist Liberal Democrats on eight percent and the anti-EU UK Independence Party (UKIP) on five per cent.
With all markets and polls indicating a Conservative Party victory on 8 June, political punters may find the best value voting on the 'Size of the Conservative Majority' a critical decree for Theresa May's postponed Brexit negotiations with the European Union. A person familiar with the projection model, speaking on condition of anonymity, said it had also been successful in the 2016 USA presidential vote.
Nervous traders are treading cautiously after pollsters incorrectly guessed the outcome of the USA election and the Brexit vote.
"This is new territory - markets have been incredibly complacent until now and we might start to see investors price in a Labour win a lot more", financial broker ETX Capital's Neil Wilson told the BBC.
Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts, YouGov predicted who was likely to win each constituency.
The result allows for a wide margin of error and the pollster acknowledged that its predictions would be controversial.