UK's Labour Party Invigorated By New Polls Days From Election

The pound has shed only some of its nearly 4 percent gain since the election was announced, suggesting investors are keeping to their original bet on a victory for Prime Minister Theresa May and her Conservative Party. Just a week out from the general election, Labour's support has risen three points, to a high last repeated in February 2014, whilst the Tories have dropped one point.

The YouGov poll for The Times put the Tories on 42%, down one point since the end of last week, with Labour up three on 39% and the Liberal Democrats down two points on 7% level with Ukip.

Since the Labour Party's local election disaster there has been a big 50 seat swing towards Labour in the spread betting market.

But unless she handsomely beats the 12-seat majority her predecessor David Cameron won in 2015, her electoral gamble will have failed, and her authority could be undermined just as she enters formal Brexit negotiations.

That would raise questions about the future of Brexit, Britain's $2.5-trillion economy and British policy on a range of issues including corporate taxation and government spending and borrowing.

Previous opinion polls suggested Prime Minister Theresa May's party would increase their majority, which is now 17 seats.

The lead started to contract sharply after she set out plans on May 18 to make some elderly people pay a greater share of their care costs, a proposal dubbed the "dementia tax" by opponents. If Wednesday's poll had used the previous poll's methodology, it would have shown the Conservatives' opinion poll lead narrowing by 6 percentage points, Panelbase said. After earlier saying she would not do so, May then called a snap national election to try to cement her position.

The British currency dipped by as much as 0.5 percent overnight on the back of the YouGov poll.

YouGov results suggest their team expects a higher turnout among young people, who are more likely to vote Labour.

He states: "The idea behind MRP is that we use the poll data from the preceding seven days to estimate a model relating interview date, constituency, voter demographics, past voting behaviour, and other respondent profile variables to their current voting intentions".

Labour is projected to gain about 30 seats if the poll is proved right and the Conservatives would lose their overall majority.

Other polling experts were quick to point out that YouGov's model was a projection, rather than a straight poll.

"We doubt that the Times/YouGov research is giving us the true picture about how many seats each party will win on June 8th", Kathleen Brooks, EMEA Research Director at City Index, wrote in a note.

YouGov said May was still the most favoured choice for prime minister, though her 43 percent rating is the lowest it has ever been.

YouGov Chief Executive Stephan Shakespeare told The Times that the model had been tested during the run-up to the European Union referendum a year ago and that it had consistently put the Leave campaign in the lead.

  • Zachary Reyes