Conservative win would give UK strongest hand in Brexit talks

The pound fell to a one-month low against the USA dollar Wednesday after a one of the countries biggest pollsters forecast a hung parliament in next week's United Kingdom elections.

A total of eight polls carried out since the May 22 Manchester suicide attack have shown May's lead over the Labour Party narrowing, with some suggesting she might not win the landslide predicted just a month ago.

The figures show the Conservatives on 42 points but Labour are close behind on 39.

Previous opinion polls suggested Prime Minister Theresa May's party would increase their majority, which is now 17 seats. That marks a big shift from the 20-point advantage the Conservatives had in April when the election was called.

The Tory party would fall 16 seats short of the 326 needed to control the House of Commons, leaving no one party with overall control of parliament.

When May called the election, polls indicated a 12-point lead for the Conservatives but recent polls have shown the opposition Labour Party gaining. "Debate their record, debate their plans, debate their proposals and let the public make up their mind", said Corbyn, who was joined at Wednesday's debate by representatives of smaller parties, including Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron and UK Independence Party chief Paul Nuttall.

Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn heading to York
Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn heading to York

Sterling fell 0.5% after a survey which placed doubt over the Conservative's ability to win an outright majority on 8 June was published by The Times. "I think debates where the politicians are squabbling among themselves doesn't do anything for the process of electioneering", May told reporters during campaigning in the city of Bath.

But YouGov acknowledged that models could not produce estimates as accurate as a full-scale poll in each constituency.

One week before the vote, six of the U.K.'s best known polling companies - ICM, Ipsos MORI, ComRes, Opinium, Survation and YouGov - agree that May is far better positioned to win than her main rival, Labour's Jeremy Corbyn.

The constituency-by-constituency model is based on the pollster conducting 50,000 interviews over the course of a week, with voters from a panel brought together by YouGov.

But Goodwin and other experts are not convinced by the model, pointing out that YouGov had used the same model to incorrectly project a victory for Hillary Clinton in three states where she lost in the USA election.

  • Leroy Wright