YouGov Shock Polls, Could Theresa May Lose, Labour Win Election 2017?

British Prime Minister Theresa May's gamble on a snap election was under question on Thursday after a YouGov opinion poll showed her Conservative party's lead had fallen to a fresh low of 3 percentage points just a week before voting begins.

The Times newspaper quoted YouGov as predicting.

May called a snap parliamentary election for June 8 - three years early - arguing that a bigger majority for her Conservatives, also known as Tories, would strengthen Britain's hand in Brexit negotiations with the EU.

Britain's conservative government was elected back in 2015 under David Cameron.

Britain's currency dipped against the euro and USA dollar in morning trading to 1.1438 and 1.286 respectively, as polls point to differing support for the Tories from the June 8 vote.

The findings again weakened sterling which had earlier fallen nearly a cent against the U.S. dollar on the YouGov model before rising on a Kantar poll which showed May's lead had increased to 10 percentage points. A separate Times/YouGov poll last night showed the Conservatives leading Labour by three points.

After a hectic campaign which was suspended by a suicide bombing last week, pollsters have offered a vast range for the result of the election: From May losing her majority to a landslide victory for her Conservatives of more than 100 seats.

The lead started to contract sharply after she set out plans on May 18 to make some elderly people pay a greater share of their care costs, a proposal dubbed the "dementia tax" by opponents.

In contrast to YouGov's model, other projections suggested May would win soundly.

The model allowed YouGov to assess the intention of every type of voter, from where they live to how they voted on Brexit, their age and social background, in order to weight the results.

Betting markets give a more than 80-per cent probability of May winning an overall majority, though they were wrong ahead of the unexpected Brexit result in the June 23 referendum previous year.

YouGov Chief Executive Stephan Shakespeare told The Times that the model had been tested during the run-up to the European Union referendum past year and that it had consistently put the Leave campaign in the lead.

Perhaps the market is underestimating the risks from this election, and the prospect of a Labour manifesto that claims to nationalise United Kingdom utilities and the Royal Mail, the latter is up 10% in the last month, has been virtually ignored by investors.

  • Zachary Reyes