Theresa May: Back my vision of brighter Brexit future
- Author: Zachary Reyes Jun 01, 2017,
Jun 01, 2017, 20:02
A hastily-arranged General Election in the United Kingdom - that was seen as a foregone conclusion - has suddenly sprung into life with polls tightening and some market analysts speaking about outcomes that would have been inconceivable just weeks ago.
In stark contrast to a string of opinion polls that have suggested May's Conservatives will increase their majority, the new constituency-by-constituency modelling by YouGov showed it might lose 20 of the 330 seats it holds and the opposition Labour Party could gain almost 30 seats, The Times said.
With just a week to go until the ballot opens, Mrs May still seemed well set to win the large overall Commons majority she said she needed when she called the election.
A YouGov opinion poll yesterday showed the Conservatives' lead for the June 8 election had fallen to a fresh low of 3 per cent.
The decision was made on the back of polls that at times put the Conservatives 20 points ahead and on course for an overwhelming victory.
One of the main reasons why Corbyn has lead Labor ever-downwards in the polls and is generally not viewed favorably even by Labor voters is because he's attributed terror attacks, including Manchester, in Britain to "foreign policy".
"Support for Labour among younger voters has gone up and gone up dramatically but then the crucial question is whether these young people will come out to vote", Curtice said.
The analysis is based on a complex model and suggests Mrs May's gamble of calling a snap election in the hope of a landslide win could backfire spectacularly.
The research, based on 50,000 interviews, allowed for big variations in the outcome of the election, ranging from a Tory total number of seats as high as 345 to as low as 274. Labour would get 257 seats, up from 229. The Conservatives are trusted the most on negotiating Brexit (36% compared with 16% for Labour), national security (34% compared with 16%), immigration (25% and 19%) and the economy (33% and 23%).
YouGov's chief executive, Stephan Shakespeare said the model had been tested during the European Union referendum campaign, when it consistently put the winning Leave side ahead.
But YouGov acknowledged that models could not produce estimates as accurate as a full-scale poll in each constituency.