Pound Pressured by Latest Poll
- Author: Zachary Reyes Jun 01, 2017,
Jun 01, 2017, 5:48
According to global internet-based market research firm YouGov, Theresa May's Conservative Party could miss out on an overall majority in Parliament by 16 seats following the General Election on June 8th.
After recovering some initial losses, the pound stood at $1.28 on Wednesday morning, a fall of 0.36%.
Such a result on June 9 would be catastrophic for May, who called for the snap election back in April, arguing the United Kingdom needed certainty, stability and strong leadership in Brexit negotiations with the EU.
If so, there is a risk that she is replaced by a more "hard-Brexit" advocate as the country enters exit negotiations with the European Union on June 19.
Sterling traded half a percent lower against the USA dollar after the YouGov data was published.
Concerns of faltering support for the Tories were further hammered home on Wednesday, when a voting estimate from YouGov, reported by The Times newspaper, showed the Tories could even lose its majority in parliament.
The Labour Party which started its campaign being given the longest ever opposition odds of a General Election victory at 18/1, is now priced at 11/1 as polls indicate some form of comeback.
If YouGov is right and the result is replicated on 8 June it would be a disaster for Theresa May, who called the snap general election in a bid to secure a huge majority ahead of the Brexit negotiations.
The latest modeling indicates that the Conservatives might lose as many as 20 seats of the 330 it now holds while the Labour Party might gain as many as 30 seats. However, the model - based on 50,000 interviews over one week - has a very wide margin of error, saying the Conservatives could get anywhere between 274 and 345 seats, meaning they could also increase their majority.
In a last-minute change of plan, Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn joined a multiparty debate organized by the BBC in Cambridge.
The pound has fallen below the $1.28 mark after a new poll predicted the Conservatives could fail to win a majority in next week's general election.
'Foreign exchange investors might not exactly embrace various aspects of the Labour party's domestic policy agenda, but they could potentially live with them as the price of a less disruptive Brexit under a government that was more willing to preserve the status quo on free movement of labour and trade'.
The Calculus had the majority at 100 until the most recent polls were accounted for.
Moreover, Jeremy Corbyn's manifesto promise to scrap tuition fees from this Autumn has attracted a surge support from young people.