New UK Poll Sees Conservatives Drop, Labour Popular with Youth
- Author: Zachary Reyes Jun 01, 2017,
Jun 01, 2017, 20:15
Meanwhile in London, Jeremy Corbyn will deliver Labour's vision for Brexit, setting out how he will protect the economy, jobs and living standards in negotiations with Brussels which are set to begin on June 19.
But if she fails to beat the 12-seat majority her predecessor David Cameron won in 2015, her electoral gamble will have failed and her authority will be seriously undermined.
May called the election three years early in a bid to strengthen her slender majority in parliament going into the Brexit talks.
The landslide victory May hoped to seal by calling a snap election for June 8 seemed much less likely with eight days to go, with the polls narrowing and her Conservative party's manifesto coming under scrutiny.
'At this late stage of the United Kingdom election campaign, the pollsters are more dividend on the size of the Conservative party's lead that at any other time during the election, ' she said.
The lead started to contract sharply after she set out plans on May 18 to make some elderly people pay a greater share of their care costs, a proposal dubbed the "dementia tax" by opponents.
In an interview secured by The Huffington Post, the unnamed candidate said her election campaign message had moved from "vote for her" to "vote for me" after being accosted by voters over May's recent decisions.
But the 20-point opinion poll lead of the time is now into single figures.
YouGov's polling has tended to show a narrower lead for the Conservatives than rival surveys.
In a poll of polls compiled by election expert John Curtice, the Conservatives were leading 44 points to Labour's 35 points.
Using new constituency-by-constituency modelling, the projection by pollsters YouGov said the party could lose 20 seats to end up with 310.
Other projections suggested May would win soundly.
Betting markets give a more than 80-per cent probability of May winning an overall majority, though they were wrong ahead of the unexpected Brexit result in the June 23 referendum previous year.
YouGov acknowledged that its predictions were controversial and allowed for a wide margin of error, adding that the samples in each constituency were small.
But he changed his mind just hours before the live BBC hustings on Wednesday - and said May was treating voters with "contempt" by failing to join him.
Jim Messina, a polling and data adviser for the Conservative Party who worked on Barack Obama's campaign, said the YouGov numbers were stupid and that he had spent the day laughing at them.