How likely is the General Election to result in a hung parliament?
- Author: Leroy Wright Jun 01, 2017,
Jun 01, 2017, 20:37
That could leave the Tories 16 seats short of the overall majority of 326 needed to govern without the support of other parties.
Despite having repeatedly said that she meant to follow the UK's Fixed Term Parliament that would have seen the next general election held in 2020, May had called a snap poll in order to win a strong mandate for negotiations over Britain's exit from the European Union (EU).
Britain's conservative government was elected back in 2015 under David Cameron.
Stocks flatlined on Wednesday as investors used the last day of May to protect gains built up in what has been yet another lucrative month, while sterling fell after an opinion poll suggested the ruling Conservatives could lose seats in next week's United Kingdom general election. Nonetheless, this morning's poll points to the sense of uncertainty ahead of an election that was supposed to be a procession to a greater Conservative victory.
The Conservatives' lead fell sharply after May announced plans to make elderly voters pay more toward their old age care, imposing a so-called "dementia tax".
A total of seven polls carried out since the May 22 Manchester suicide attack have shown May's lead over the Labour Party narrowing, with some suggesting she might not win the landslide predicted just a month ago.
"We doubt that the Times/YouGov research is giving us the true picture about how many seats each party will win on June 8th", Kathleen Brooks, EMEA Research Director at City Index, wrote in a note.
May called the election three years early in a bid to strengthen her hand going into Brexit talks, which are due to begin on June 19.
YouGov acknowledged that its predictions were controversial and allowed for a wide margin of error, adding that the samples in each constituency were small.
YouGov's chief executive, Stephan Shakespeare said the model had been tested during the European Union referendum campaign, when it consistently put the winning Leave side ahead.
YouGov, using a technique called "Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification", uses a range of factors including demographics, past elections and voter profiles to build a model which can come up with an estimate of how the vote will be split in individual constituencies.
However, some analysts questioned the methodology of the YouGov survey and suggested it was not an accurate forecast of voting intentions.
Shakespeare said the figures could change dramatically before June 8.
"The data suggests that there is churn on all fronts, with the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats likely to both lose and gain seats", he was quoted as saying. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all.