British PM May looks 9 seats short of parliament majority - YouGov

The YouGov analysis for The Times puts the Tories on course to win 310 seats - down from the 330 they held when the election was called, and 16 short of an overall majority.

The same poll forecast a gain of 28 seats for Labour.

In a poll of polls compiled by election expert John Curtice, the Conservatives were leading 44 points to Labour's 35 points.

For bets on the size of a Conservative majority, a 150-174 seat majority is "well-backed as the favourite", with odds going as low as 3/1.

"A hung parliament could easily see Jeremy Corbyn become prime minister - investors simply wouldn't know where they stood", said Neil Wilson, senior market analyst at ETX Capital.

The currency's drop "is another example of markets not being prepared for a close election, let alone a hung parliament", said Sean Callow, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp., the second most-accurate major currencies forecaster in Bloomberg's latest ranking.

The pound fell sharply at the beginning of trading yesterday and is very choppy right now as the general election polls tighten dramatically.

With just ten days to go until the United Kingdom hits the 2017 General Election polling stations on 8 June, Betfair Politics reports that it has recorded £22 million traded across its "UK 2017" Exchange betting markets.

According to the Times, "the estimates were met with scepticism by Tory and Labour figures".

The findings again weakened sterling which had earlier fallen nearly a cent against the United States dollar on the YouGov model before rising on a Kantar poll which showed May's lead had increased to 10 percentage points. Labour, on the other hand, would see their number of MPs jump from 229 to 257.

A YOUGOV analysis has suggested the United Kingdom faces a hung parliament.

YouGov, using a technique called "Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification", uses a range of factors - including demographics, past elections and voter profiles - to build a model which can come up with an estimate of how the vote will be split in individual constituencies.

Moreover, Jeremy Corbyn's manifesto promise to scrap tuition fees from this Autumn has attracted a surge support from young people.

"Based on the model's current estimates, some seats are likely to change hands along European Union referendum dividing lines".

It is still unclear how much Britain knew about suicide bomber Salman Abedi before he carried out the deadliest militant attack on British soil for 12 years.

YouGov have admitted there is a wide margin for error with their projection model with their results possibly indicating also as few as 274 Torie seats or as high as 345.

Bloomberg News asked senior pollsters on Wednesday and Thursday who they expect to be prime minister after the election, whether there will be a majority government, how big will that majority be, and whether Labour can still win.

  • Leroy Wright


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