British PM May could lose majority in June 8 election - YouGov projection
- Author: Zachary Reyes Jun 01, 2017,
Jun 01, 2017, 2:15
A new poll suggesting that June's general election could end in a hung parliament, with Theresa May 16 seats short of a majority, prompted the pound to fall below $1.28 on Wednesday morning. "It is the outcome of a model that has used untested methodology to come up with this hung parliament conclusion".
Ed Miliband, the former Labour leader, who suffered a disastrous result at the 2015 election despite predictions of a hung parliament, replied to the research on Twitter.
The pound has risen almost 4% since May called a snap election for June, as investors bet a then-predicted landslide majority for May would result in a stronger hand in negotiating Britain's exit from the European Union.
'In addition, further rate rises in the United States and stronger fundamentals from the European economy will likely see strengthening of the euro and the dollar, providing further headwinds for sterling going forward'.
The UK currency was also on the back foot against the euro, falling 0.35% to €1.1452, meaning one euro is now worth 87.33p, compared to 76p before last June's European Union referendum.
A total of six polls carried out since the May 22 Manchester attack have shown May's lead over the opposition Labour Party narrowing, suggesting she might not win the landslide predicted just a month ago. Her decision to hold the ballot early (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/uk-adds-another-layer-of-complexity-analysts-react-to-surprise-snap-election-call-2017-04-18), despite having consistently ruled out a "snap" out-of-cycle election, was seen as a bid to bolster the government's majority as it went into Brexit negotiations.
If May fails to win an overall majority, she would be forced to strike a deal with another party to continue governing either as a coalition or a minority government.
The Times offers a health warning with the polls: it has big variations and suggests that the Tories could get as many as 345 seats on a good night, up 15 MPs.
This YouGov projection is one of the first polls to provide such a result. May has refused to do any live TV debates, and Corbyn had previously said he wouldn't take part without her.
Recent opinion polls have shown May's lead has contracted to a range of 5 to 14 percentage points.