Forecast of 2017 hurricane in Atlantic calls for above-normal season

An above-normal hurricane season is forecast for the Atlantic region.

Further, TSR's forecast update calls for 3 tropical storms and 1 hurricane to make landfall somewhere on the US coastline, with a 40% chance that accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) will be above average for the United States during the season.

Adding the latest TSR prediction into our tracked forecaster mix gives us an increased Artemis average forecast for the 2017 hurricane season of 12.3 named storms, 5.7 hurricanes and 2.6 major hurricanes.

The 2016 season was the most active since 2012, with 15 named storms, including 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.

Forecasters expect warmer-than-average waters across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, also the wind shear to weaker-than-average and a weak or nonexistent El Nino, said Ben Friedman, acting NOAA administrator. Also, warmer sea surface temperatures tend to fuel hurricanes as they move across the ocean.

Strong El Ninos and wind shear typically suppress development of Atlantic hurricanes, so the prediction for weak conditions points to more hurricane activity this year.

"The Gulf of Mexico coast, especially central and eastern areas including all of Florida, will be the greatest areas of concern for direct and indirect impacts from tropical storms and hurricanes during the 2017 season", commented AccuWeather hurricane forecaster Dan Kottlowski. Also, beginning this year, the public will be able to click on the hurricane track cone graphic and see how far outside of the cone hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds extend, which can be hundreds of miles.

The forecast of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration calls for 11 to 17 named storms, with five to nine hurricanes. Tropical storms will sustain the winds of at least 39 miles per hour, and hurricanes are expected to have winds of at least 74 miles per hour.

And that includes the early season tropical storm, Adrian.

MEMA says one of the first steps you should take in preparing for tropical weather is so create or restock an emergency supply kit with things like non-perishable food, battery powered radio, extra batteries, copies of important documents and more.

  • Larry Hoffman