Early voting results 'favour' Clinton over Trump

On ABC's "Good Morning America", Republican vice presidential candidate Mike Pence said the campaign's message matters more than "dollars and cents" and it's up to Trump to decide if he wants to plunge more of his personal fortune into the campaign. "I can't vote for Trump".

Sunshine State polls in recent days have shown mixed results, with some giving Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, a slim edge and others showing Clinton ahead by as many as 4 points. He also struggled in the recent presidential debates and faced questions about his taxes. Just 79 percent of all Republicans surveyed say they are voting for their party's nominee.

Adding to Trump's challenge: Millions have already voted by mail and at polling stations across 37 states. The AP-GfK poll found that 74 percent of likely voters believe Clinton will win, up from 63 percent in September.

Even if he wins the traditional battlegrounds of OH and Florida, he'd nearly certainly need to pluck one from the blue-leaning trio he's visiting early this week - as well as a state like New Hampshire, Nevada or North Carolina - in order to overcome Clinton's map advantage. There has been a marginal but definite tightening in the Clinton-Trump lead both in the days leading up to and following the Weiner-Abedin email revelations.

The strength of the Democratic turnout effort appears to be paying dividends in states where voting is underway.

In North Carolina, a must-win state for Trump, Democrats lead Republicans in early ballots, 47 percent to 29 percent. Strategists in both parties attribute the lower black turnout in part to an early reduction in polling stations, though more sites are to open in the days leading up to November 8.

Early voting data for Florida and North Carolina was not yet available this week. "Given the voting we're seeing, Clinton will run within five percentage points of Trump". He also needs to win states now leaning Clinton's way.

Clinton, defending herself from the new Federal Bureau of Investigation examination, focused Monday on battleground OH, a state Trump's team concedes he must win.

In Georgia, she enjoyed a similar lead among early voters.

"We have a couple of different paths to get to 270 and we're actively pursuing them", Kellyanne Conway, Trump's campaign manager, told MSNBC on Monday. This week, he's devoting his most valuable resource - his time - to states where polls suggest he's trailing Clinton by significant margins.

Although voters are still more likely to have an unfavorable than a favorable view of Clinton, her ratings have improved slightly in the past month. The official said investigators would move expeditiously but would not say when the review might be complete. Just 34 percent of all likely voters have a favorable view of Trump.

At the raucous rally, Mrs. Obama passionately touted Clinton's experience and denounced Trump as too divisive and thin-skinned for the White House. Likewise, tens of thousands more Democrats than Republicans had voted early in the state as of last week.

The network on Thursday moved both states from "lean Democratic" to "battleground" status. Hispanics are a growing share of the Arizona electorate, while Georgia is on its way to becoming a majority-minority state.

The Lone Star State isn't the lightest shade of blue on even the most hopeful Democrat's map.

Trump also can not count on Utah, carried by a Republican in the past 12 elections.

Overall, more than 23 million votes have been cast, far higher than the rate in 2012, according to Associated Press data. And Trump's comments and alleged actions toward women have chilled his support among typically conservative, college-educated white women in the Houston and Dallas suburbs, Murray said.

"We want someone who is a unifying force in this country, someone who sees our differences not as a threat but as a blessing", Mrs. Obama said as she addressed an enthusiastic, 11,000-person crowd in Winston-Salem, one of Clinton's biggest gatherings of her campaign.

  • Larry Hoffman