Donald Trump will win US Presidential election, predicts hugely accurate AI machine
- Author: Larry Hoffman Nov 01, 2016,
Nov 01, 2016, 22:32
The artificial intelligence system that has accurately predicted the outcomes of every US presidential election since it was created in 2004 is forecasting a Donald Trump victory.
Dubbed MogIA, the system is fed some 20 million data points, including data from social media like Facebook and Twitter as well as Google and YouTube.
MogIA uses data such as engagement with tweets and videos posted to the platforms the system looks at.
The technology is named after Mowgli, Rudyard Kipling's character in The Jungle Book, because it learns from its environment.
MogIA, developed in 2004 by Sanjiv Rai, showed Donald Trump as the projected victor of the presidential election, with a 25 percent higher enthusiasm rate than President Barack Obama had when he won in 2008, CNBC reported.
As reported, this system has been getting smarter since 2004, and if Trump somehow loses it will defy a system that has been accurate for the past 12 years.
Major national polls may show Donald Trump trailing Hillary Clinton, but one reliable prediction system thinks he will actually pull away with the win.
Using social media to predict outcomes of elections has become increasingly popular because of the amount of data available publically.
But the entrepreneur admitted that there were limitations to the data in that sentiment around social media posts is hard for the system to analyze.
Mr Rai explains that just because someone engages with a tweet, for example, it doesn't necessarily mean that they support him. He also added that there are now far more people on social media than there were in the previous elections.
Rai said in his report shared with CNBC that it would be more surprising if his AI's prediction is wrong.
Mr Rai said: "If you look at the primaries, in the primaries, there were enormous amount of negative conversations that happen with regards to Trump. However, when these conversations started picking up pace, in the final days, it meant a huge game opening for Trump and he won the Primaries with a good margin", he said.
Billionaire Mr Trump is now facing an uphill battle in his bid to become President of the USA after a string of controversies dented his bid to beat Mrs Clinton in the race to the White House.
Last week, Clinton warned voters against complacency and told them to pay no attention to the polls. "Pay no attention to the polls", she said at a rally at Broward College in Coconut Creek.